Are you 10 years or less away from retiring?

You’ve spent your working life saving and you can almost taste retirement. The decisions you make from here on could have a considerable impact on the size of your retirement savings pot and whether or not you can achieve the required income you need once you stop working.

I work with clients to help them see a snapshot of how their current strategy will look at retirement. If needs be we look at alterations they may need to make to achieve their goals. Here are some of the things we discuss:

1. What are your expenses now and what might they be at retirement?  Although you may be well-practised in budgeting, many people don’t know what income they will need when they retire. Make a budget or get financial planning advice on how to integrate pension savings into a retirement plan. This will also allow you to see how much money you need for everyday life and for additional events such as holidays and hobbies in retirement.

2. What will be your sources of income post-retirement?  Once you’ve got an idea of what income you’ll need, it’s now time to start identifying where your income will come from. There are a few common sources of retirement income, such as pensions, rental income from property, savings, state pension.

3. Make the most of your pension contributions now.  As you’re later in your working life, it’s possible that you’ll be at the peak of your earnings which might make it easier to put extra money into your pension. Many people throw in significant lump sums into their pensions as they get closer to retirement.

4. Check your investments.  Once you get closer to retirement - say 10 years to go – it might suit you to amend your pension portfolio into ‘safer’ or low volatile investments. I heard many stories from the financial crash of 2008 about people who “lost a huge portion of their pension value near retirement”. Part of the problem was that many people didn’t understand where their money was invested or the volatility of their pension strategy.

5. Combine your pensions or maintain separate?  Having your pensions together could make them easier to manage, as well as help you to make more informed choices when it comes to saving for retirement. On the flipside, there are scenarios where it makes more sense for some people to have more than one pension.

6. Start thinking about your retirement options.  Do you know what options you will have with your pensions at retirement? How will that help you achieve your retirement goals?

Market Update

US markets have officially entered a bear market, with only 1932 representing a worse start to the year for the key S&P 500 market gauge. A 50/50 portfolio of global equities and global bonds look set for their worst quarter in history.

However, it is worth noting that the above tells us that we are at extremes and hindsight will tell us that a move to cash in early January would have represented a salient New Year’s Resolution so far this year. Last Monday every constituent of the S&P 500 was in negative territory at some point (first time since 1996), and the wider New York Stock Exchange advance/decline ratio was the most negative since 2007. The moves over the weekend in riskier ‘assets’ such as Bitcoin (-70% from record high) also suggest sentiment is now negative in the extreme.

What does history tell us at this juncture?

Firstly, do we know when equities will start to rise significantly again? No, we don’t. But there are some things we do know. We know that there is technical overselling. We know that negative sentiment is extreme (Bull/Bear Spread). And we know that valuations are now below ten-year averages (Global P/Es). We also know that if you had stuck with stocks after the first 25% fall in 1970, 1974, 2001, and 2008 you would have been back in positive territory in between two and five years.

This is all very easy to note ‘ex-post’, and the price of admission to this point has been double digit declines across multi-asset funds so far this year. But the declines experienced by some investors in certain risk assets (single ‘meme’ stocks, cryptocurrencies) do not in general represent the returns experienced by those who engage with a financial advisor.

Markets may have ‘changed’ in the short term, but if a person’s circumstances haven’t it is highly probable that the plan, fund choice etc, at the start of the year continues to be the right one. It is also known that even in a world of rising interest rates; real returns are still negative – and are lower than they were at the start of the year. Inflation is decimating the purchasing power of money held on deposit more than any time this century. This is a crucial point for investors looking to save for the longer term. Whether for pension, child’s education, or a rainy-day fund.

Equity markets are under pressure, inflation remains hot, and interest rate policy continues to heat up. However, in scenarios such as this, those with cool, calm heads will prevail. This can be achieved by people engaging with their advisor, sticking with their financial plan, and recognising that the price volatility experienced whilst investing is the admission price for long term investment returns.